In the latest Virtual Medal Table (VMT) compiled by Nielsen’s Gracenote it is forecast that Ireland will finish 30th in the overall medals’ table with two gold, two silver and five bronze medals. In their previous prediction released in March, Gracenote forecasted that Ireland would secure seven medals in Paris.
Ireland’s best-ever medal performance came at the London Games in 2012 when they secured six medals, with Katie Taylor leading the way with a historic gold medal in women’s boxing.
At the last Olympics in Tokyo three years ago, Ireland won four medals – gold and bronze in boxing and rowing.
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver, and bronze medal winners by country.
It does not identify the likely medal winners at the XXXIII Olympiad. The forecast will be updated a few days before the opening ceremony on July 28.
Given that Ireland has two defending Olympics champions, Kellie Harrington (boxing) and scullers Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy in action in Paris as well as two reigning world champions Rhys McClenaghan (gymnastics) and Daniel Wiffen (swimming) – it is predictable that Ireland’s forecasted medal haul is at a record high.
The United States, China, Great Britain, and France lead the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table forecast for next month’s Games.
It predicts that the US will win most medals overall at Paris 2024 with a haul of 123. If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but should challenge the United States for first place on gold medals.
The 87 medals currently forecast for China would be two fewer than the country’s total in Tokyo two years ago. The 36 gold medals forecast would be two down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting two fewer British medals than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 14 golds in Paris.
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its forecast total of 29 gold medals would be not far short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 48 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 20 years, since winning 50 at Athens 2004.
Among the countries projected to finish above Ireland in the medals tables are the Netherlands (36), Hungary (23), Spain (20), Ukraine (17), New Zealand (16), Denmark (14), Sweden (12) and Belgium (11)
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