Liverpool have real reason to believe they can beat Man City and Arsenal to title

It’s not just the Premier League table that Liverpool fans can point towards to make a case for the side’s title bid this season. Saturday’s 1-0 win at Crystal Palace ensured the Reds would remain top for the international break, with Diogo Jota’s early goal ensuring Arne Slot’s great start as manager continued.

The Dutchman has won six of his first seven top-flight games in charge, the only blip a 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest last month.

As a result, his team sit top on 18 points, one clear of both champions Manchester City and Arsenal.

But the Merseyside club are also top of another important list. According to The Athletic, Liverpool are the only Premier League team to be on the right side of xG difference in every match they’ve played in 2024/25.

xG, an abbreviation of expected goals, measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood it will be scored from a certain position on the pitch during a phase of attacking play. The value provided is based on a number of factors ahead of the shot being taken.

City have only come out on top in four of their seven contests, the same number as Arsenal. Indeed, surprisingly it’s Fulham who are closest to Liverpool, having produced a favourable xG over six of their opponents so far including against City.

It’s Leicester City who the stats currently reflect most badly on. Despite getting their first Premier League win of the campaign over Bournemouth on Saturday, under Steve Cooper, they’ve come out on the wrong side in all of their games.

While both Slot, and Liverpool fans, will know it’s still too early to start predicting a title win, the xG table does make for encouraging reading. Especially given the ex-Feyenoord boss is toppling Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta who both have far more Premier League experience.

However, Liverpool are set to be severely tested after the international break. They host Chelsea in their next Premier League clash on October 20, which will be followed by a trip to Arsenal.

Games against in-form Brighton, Aston Villa, Southampton and then Man City come in November, not to mention Champions League matches with Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid. And Slot will almost certainly have to cope without keeper Alisson for that entire period, after the Brazilian limped off at Selhurst Park.

Slot may also be aware that the Reds also finished the 2023/24 season top of the xG table. However, that wasn’t reflected in their overall position, ending up nine points off the top despite leading the table with only eight games to go.