Euro 2024: How can Ukraine qualify for the round of 16 from Group E?

Ukraine suffered a shock 0-3 defeat in its Euro 2024 opener against Romania at Allianz Arena in Munich on June 17.

However, the Blue and Yellow brigade came back strong in its next assignment against Slovakia with a 2-1 win and remains in contention for the round of 16 qualification. The third and final matchday in Group C will decide the qualified teams for this group.

Ukraine will take on Belgium in its final group fixture on Wednesday at MHPArena in Stuttgart.

“When you say something very loudly, the echo will be very loud as well, so I think we should be silent and we should do what we can do, and we’ll see tomorrow at 8 PM what we could do,” Ukraine coach Serhiy Rebrov told reporters ahead of the key clash against Belgium.

“What will it mean for the country is that we will go on with this fairytale, this really fantastic fairytale for several more days for the whole country, because we are at war for almost 900 days,” he added.

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“For the Ukrainians, every game, every event like that means a lot, it means for them that they can come back to the usual pre-war times,” the 50-year-old coach said.

How can Ukraine qualify for the round of 16?

Ukraine plays Belgium, which defeated Romania 2-0 in its previous match. In the final matchday, the following are the scenarios for the the Blue and Yellow to progress:

Scenario 1: Ukraine wins

Ukraine will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if it beats Belgium, irrespective of what happens in the other match.

Scenario 2: Ukraine draws and Romania/Slovakia win the other match

Ukraine will go to four points and will qualify as a best third-placed team if it draws and the other game is not drawn, as it will have four points while the winner of the other match will qualify as the group-topper.

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Scenario 3: Ukraine and Romania draw in their respective matches

If both matches have the same score, or if the game between Belgium and Ukraine is a draw with fewer goals than the one between Slovakia vs Romania, the group ranking would be based on goal difference and goals scored.

That would be done as follows:

• Romania
• Belgium
• Slovakia
• Ukraine

If both draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:

If the match between Slovakia and Romania ends as a goalless draw and the one between Belgium and Ukraine ends 1-1 or or any permutation where Belgium scores only one more goal than Romania in its draw, Belgium and Romania would finish as the top two teams from Group E, equal on goal difference and goals scored.

In that case, the head-to-head criteria is reapplied exclusively to those two teams, which would keep Belgium ahead as it beat Romania 2-0.

Slovakia would be third and Ukraine fourth on goal difference.

Scenario 4: Ukraine loses and Slovakia draws with/beats Romania: Ukraine out

Ukraine will be unable to reach the round of 16 if it loses and Slovakia avoids defeat, or if both games are drawn.